SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) still looks like good value here now that it is public, which allowed it to receive $1.91 billion in additional cash. Moreover, on May 24, the company produced its 10-Q filing, and on May 31 it sent out an investor presentation. (For some odd reason, the company did not produce an actual earnings release, just a slide presentation.) Nevertheless, SOFI stock is still worth between $23.91 and $27.80.
This means the stock, at $20.84 on June 24, is at least 14.7% to 33.4% undervalued, as I wrote in my article last month.
For example, on page 9 of its investor presentation, the company reaffirmed that its prior guidance. It still expects to make $27 million in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) this year. However, it also shows that it expects just a 3% EBITDA margin, which implies revenue of $900 million. This is lower than the $980 million on page 41 of its original SPAC (special purpose acquisition corp) deck.
Where This Leaves SoFi
Sofi also provided guidance for the second quarter, showing that adjusted EBITDA could range from negative $8 million to positive $2 million. This is lower than the $4.1 million it made in Q1, and also implies that the company expects to make up to $21 million in adjusted EBITDA in the second half. This will be more than 2.5 times the adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2021, assuming its projections are hit.
In other words, SoFi expects the second half of 2021 to show a major uptick in revenue and profits.
For example, this is consistent with what happened last year. On page 8 of the earnings slide deck, SoFi shows that adjusted EBITDA spiked from negative $23.7 billion in Q2 2020 to positive $33.5 million in Q3. That is a swing of $57 million on a consecutive quarterly basis. If that happens this year, SoFi might end up with a significant jump in its Q3 adj. EBITDA numbers.
This might not seem predictable. For example, most of SoFi’s revenue comes from loans and a smaller amount from its Technology Platform. In Q1 loans were 77.8% or $168 million of its $216 million in quarterly revenue. There is no particular reason why loan interest should spike during Q3, so most of the swing is probably from the technology sector, mostly its online banking and brokerage unit. My feeling is that last year this spiked with the government payments. So this year it may not occur.
As a result, I suspect there will be a more gradual increase in the company’s revenue and earnings through the end of the year.
What To Do With SOFI Stock
I am included to keep my previous valuation estimates for the company, given that the Q1 earnings showed positive adjusted EBITDA. Moreover, the company maintained its prior guidance for the full year. I suspect this means that they are standing behind their previous four-year outlook for revenue and EBITDA. This was the basis for my estimate that SOFI stock was worth between $23.91 to $27.80, leaving it at least 14.7% to 33.4% undervalued.
So far, two analysts have written reports on the stock, according to TipRanks, with an average price target of $27.50 per share. That represents a potential gain of 31.77% over yesterday’s closing price of $20.84. So in this case, both analysts and my own assessment are in agreement, which is not often the case.
Therefore I think enterprising investors might consider taking a position in SOFI stock for the long term. If the price stays below $21, there seems to be a good potential ROI for most long-term investors.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold a position in any security mentioned in the article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.